Upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2025

Governments seeking to balance budgets and bolster domestic economies are currently finding it challenging to entice upstream investment. Oil prices have largely remained stable, interest rates elevated and companies have exercised caution and capital discipline. In 2025, we will see just how much regulators believe in their assets on offer and how much room there is to negotiate.

What are the other key themes to watch in 2025? What should oil and gas fiscal policymakers be thinking about, and where are the key countries to watch for developments of note?

Drawing on insight from our Fiscal Service, we set out our predictions in Global upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2025. Read on for a brief introduction – and fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the full report .

Will fiscal impacts of protectionism emerge in 2025?

Protectionism could emerge as a central theme this year. President Trump’s first term in office saw US policies shift inward, ushering in a wave of nationalist and protectionist sentiment around the world. The US enacted tariffs and withdrew from or renegotiated free trade agreements. Argentina, China, Brazil, India and the US all enacted tariffs to protect local industries.

President Trump’s campaign promised a host of tariffs and other measures during his second term that could signal the beginning of a second wave of domestic protectionism. Read the full report for our take on the fiscal impacts.

While some emissions fiscal terms will advance, others could recede

Some regulators and policymakers have long seen the energy transition as an area of economic growth. Recently, governments have also begun to view the transition as an important source of funding and protectionism. Balancing energy transition objectives and short-term domestic needs is proving to be a delicate balancing act for regulators.

How will that balancing act play out in 2025? The full report considers the uncertain fate of the US methane tax, possible border adjustments and the prospect of mandated offsets.

Also in Global upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2025…

Will new terms clarify how strongly different governments believe in their assets – and where are the key licensing rounds and negotiations to watch? And are fiscal systems ready for the increasing visibility of global offshore decommissioning? Read our view on this and more in the full report.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.