International NOCs’ growing presence in Sub-Saharan Africa

International NOCs are strengthening their positions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) upstream. Their share of regional production, currently dominated by Chinese NOCs, will double by 2032, with growth from Qatar Energy, ADNOC, Petronas, ONGC, KOGAS, and PTTEP.  

At the May Africa Energies Summit, Wood Mackenzie presented on the expansion of international NOCs in SSA. We analysed the peer group’s resource base, production, and investment outlook, and reviewed their strategic drivers for choosing SSA for their overseas ambitions. Fill out the form at the top of the page to download a video of our analysts discussing the key slides from our presentation. 

Most foreign NOCs in Sub-Saharan Africa will spend more in the coming decade compared to the last 

Upstream development capex by foreign NOCs in the region is estimated to increase by 15-20% annually between now and 2027. Qatar Energy will lead the pack with upcoming developments of world-class discoveries in Namibia. PETRONAS recently took FID of a US$6 billion greenfield oil project in Angola deepwater. ADNOC entered the Africa LNG space in May, by acquiring a stake in Mozambique Area 4.  

The main resource themes for the international NOCs are deepwater and LNG, which account for 85% of their remaining 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent in SSA. Exploration success and bolt-on business development may give these NOCs access to more advantaged barrels and more optionality.  

Why do international NOCs choose Sub-Saharan Africa?  

SSA has material prospective and discovered resources and low discovery costs. The Atlantic Margin suits many international NOCs, for whom deepwater is a key strategic growth theme.  

Corporate strategy-wise, different NOCs have different drivers for growing in the region. Most international NOCs hold material non-operated positions, often in partnership with the Majors. The main exceptions are CNPC’s and CNOOC’s onshore positions in Chad, Niger, and Uganda. Asian NOCs are driven by domestic energy security mandates. Resource-rich Middle Eastern NOCs choose to internationalise to diversify and acquire new capabilities.  

Don’t forget to fill out the form at the top of the page to download a video of our analysts discussing the key slides from our presentation.