Sub-Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2020 Report

Insight 17 December 2019

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Report summary

2020 ushers in a new decade that will see a perceptible shift from West Africa to East Africa, as Mozambique's LNG projects begin to dominate investment and volumes. Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia will also undergo a transformation in their upstream sectors, while in major resource additions are possible in South Africa and Namibia. With Rovuma LNG reaching FID in 2020, investment in East Africa will more than double in 2020. Fiscal terms in SSA are generally tough and so are the resource themes. By 2030, two thirds of SSA production will be from deep water and/or bound for LNG supply. Licence rounds are increasingly shunned by investors, and SSA is peripheral in international M&A. Outwith SSA's LNG mega-projects, more needs to be done to ensure that the region remains competitive.

Executive Summary
1. Exploration: potential for big volumes in southern Africa
2. FIDs: LNG dominates again, but global oversupply looms
3. Capital spend: East Africa in the ascendancy
4. M&A: stranded assets in a crowded market
5. Fiscal: Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Bill returns