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Global oil supply short-term update - February 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Following the last meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in early December prices rose to the low-$80s by mid-January. However, since then they have fallen to the mid-$70s in the run up to the 3 February OPEC+ meeting, as the market assesses the impact of the planned easing of OPEC+ cuts from April. Our base case outlook remains that this easing of OPEC+ cuts proceeds as scheduled. Relatively minor changes have been made to our forecast, with the most significant changes being upgrades to Libya and US Lower 48 NGL and crude.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: minor upward changes to the outlook as prices weaken ahead of the OPEC+ meeting
- Non-OPEC supply: upgrades to US NGLs partly offset by downgrades to Russia and Ghana
- US Lower 48: oil production to grow by 340,000 b/d in 2025
- OPEC: ahead of OPEC+ meeting, no changes expected to unwinding schedule
Tables and charts
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What's included
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