Global oil supply short-term update - April 2025

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The high level of market uncertainty continues, against the backdrop of escalated US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs from the countries targeted. The current focus is on the impact of the substantial widening of US tariffs on 2 April to encompass nearly all goods imported by the US; plus the OPEC+ plan to ease production restraint from April, subject to market conditions. The group of eight OPEC+ members began increasing output from 1 April and agreed when they met on 4 April to continue raising production in May, at a slightly accelerated rate of return from the original schedule. Moderate changes have been made to our forecast this month, with global liquids supply being revised down by 210,000 b/d for 2025 and 160,000 b/d for 2026. The largest changes are downgrades to Venezuela, US Lower 48, Iran and Russia.