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Country Report 08 April 2021

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 1 April OPEC+ held a meeting to decide on production levels for May and ultimately provided a roadmap for the easing of production restraint to also cover June and July. As has been the case for the previous meetings this year, the outcome was in line with our expected pace of production increases. As a result, the outlook for global supply only shows small changes this month. In 2021, downgrades to the US (predominantly NGLs), Canada and Brazil are partially offset by upgrades to Libya and Iran. Production in 2022 has been upgraded, reflecting a slight de-risking of our forecast for Libya supply and upgrades to US Lower 48 and Canada oil sands production. In our latest analysis, global supply has been revised down by 80,000 b/d in 2021 and up 180,000 b/d in 2022.

Global supply: easing of OPEC+ production restraint through July in line with our assumptions
- OPEC+ maintains a cautious stance, with substantial production increases still deferred until Q3 2021
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions focus on North America supply in 2022
- US Lower 48: higher prices position the Permian to set new records
- OPEC: minor revisions as OPEC+ meeting outcome is in line with expectations