ExxonMobil corporate report

Company Report 25 February 2025

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio is in the best shape since the merger with Mobil.

Tom Ellacott

Senior Vice President, Corporate Research

Tom Ellacott

Senior Vice President, Corporate Research

Tom leads our corporate thought leadership, drawing on more than 20 years' industry knowledge.

Latest articles by Tom

View Tom Ellacott's full profile

Why buy this report?

You’ll get a deep-dive analysis of ExxonMobil’s investment strategy.

We review ExxonMobil’s strengths and weaknesses, plus what we think are the key risks to future performance. We also scrutinise the SuperMajor’s financial performance, asset base and production profile.

What’s the key takeaway from this report?

ExxonMobil’s portfolio is geared for long-term outperformance. Its main growth projects are low cost, deliver double-digit returns at US$35/bbl and boost the Supermajor's resilience to low prices.

The strategy reinforces ExxonMobil's tried-and-tested focus on returns and long-term fundamentals. But it will have to sacrifice financial performance in the near-term to drive value growth out to 2025.

Report summary

ExxonMobil’s opportunity-rich portfolio sets it apart from the competition. Rising volumes and margin expansion are a powerful combination which drives leading operating cash flow growth this decade. The performance gap to peers widens into the 2030s – and upside to our base case is material across all verticals. ExxonMobil has a coherent strategy that plays to its competitive strengths. It also has the portfolio to deliver on its strategy. The Supermajor now needs to execute on its plan while derisking new opportunities that will sustain growth and build low-carbon optionality. Success will ensure it stays ahead of the pack even as peers embrace elements of ExxonMobil’s model.

These reports provide unsurpassed proprietary data and analysis, underpinned by our industry leading asset models to help you understand your peers and competitors, and make the best strategic choices.

Upstream volume growth and margin expansion are a powerful combination
Molecule transformation provides a differentiated foundation for future growth
Low carbon upgrade on derisking progress
Targets
Long-term strategic outlook
Recent market performance
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
- Sustainability
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
ExxonMobil’s guidance and Wood Mackenzie’s take
Lower costs and derisking downstream are key to hitting the cash flow breakeven guidance
Current strategic positioning
- Overview
- Legacy portfolio
- Growth themes
- Non-core regions
New Project Returns
- Overview
- US unconventionals
- Conventionals and oil sands
- Legacy production
- Growth regions
- Oil/gas split
Portfolio renewal
- Overview
- Exploration
- Overview
- Conventional exploration performance
- Exploration outlook
- Guyana high-impact exploration
- Maturing new exploration plays
- Business development and M&A
- 2 more item(s)...
LNG
12 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Share price movement indexed to March 2020
Benchmarking: Market Premium/discount to Wood Mackenzie’s base case valuation
Resilience ratings: 1) IOC benchmarking; 2) ExxonMobil ratings weighted by Dimension

Wood Mackenzie’s forecast of ExxonMobil’s operating cash flow
ExxonMobil’s guidance versus Wood Mackenzie’s projection for earnings
ExxonMobil’s guidance versus Wood Mackenzie’s projection for operating cash flow
ExxonMobil: annual cash flow sources & uses
Cash flow breakeven sensitivity
Wood Mackenzie’s estimate of ExxonMobil’s LNG operating cash flow by asset*
Benchmarking the Majors’ downstream operating cash flow
Benchmarking the Majors’ downstream free cash flow
22 more item(s)...