Regional product markets short-term outlook May 2023

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2024 on a regional level. In the near term, we have made a downward revision to Q2 and Q3 2023 runs. This is driven by lower European, Middle East, and Asian runs, offsetting the impact of an increase in Russian crude runs. Globally the refining outlook is much weaker in this update, as higher Russian supply has removed any pricing support for global diesel cracks and pushed more simple refining margins to levels not seen since 2019, forcing run cuts and lower overall utilisation levels in Europe and Asia. We do still show strong Y-o-Y demand recovery in Q3 2023 of over 2 million b/d, this supports higher global crude runs through H2 2023 but with 2 million b/d of additional refining capacity scheduled to start up, overall utilisation levels are lower.