Regional product markets short-term outlook December 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2023 on a regional level. The emergence of the Omicron variant has plunged global markets into uncertainty given its potential for renewed lockdowns and mobility restrictions. While it could add downside risk into Q1 2022, we do not expect to see a significant impact to refining runs in the near term as governments assess the efficacy of the existing vaccines. For this update, we have made a downward revision to our Q4 2021 crude run outlook. This mainly accounts for extended refinery maintenance in the US, renewed lockdowns in Europe because of the Delta variant, and poor net refining margins due to sustained high global natural gas prices/high OPEX costs and cuts to Chinese runs from no additional product export quota allocation.