Oil products price forecast update September 2021

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. Our monthly Ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose US$2.12/bbl to US$4.70/bbl in August, the highest monthly margin since October 2019. Atlantic basin gasoline cracks surged higher on strong seasonal demand coupled with further easing of lockdown restrictions, while lower refinery run rates in Europe remained weak. Stronger fuel oil cracks supported the bottom of the barrel, as high LNG and natural gas prices supported switching to fuel oil in for industrial use. Global margins are unlikely to sustain August levels, although the impact of hurricane Ida could add support to Atlantic basin cracks into September. We expect global margins to ease month on month to average US$2.45/bbl in Q4 2021. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Thursday 16 September.