IMO 2020 Updated analysis of the marine fuel sulphur changes Report

Insight 09 April 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Alan Gelder, VP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets explores how refiners can benefit from this legislation, as well as their potential hurdles.

Report summary

The change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of this change, providing an update on the article published in August 2017. We have made a downward revision to our scrubber penetration rate in 2020, although we still expect a ramp up in the number of scrubbers installed post-2020, particularly in the new build market. Our base-case outlook also assumes higher compliance and higher availability of ULSFO in 2020, although many uncertainties remain surrounding the implementation path for the global sulphur cap. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H2 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We also present further work in relation to the pricing and availability of ULSFO, assessing supply from pure ULSFO streams as well as blending with VGO.

Why buy this report?

Our latest IMO 2020 insight further develops our outlook on the impacts of the marine fuel sulphur changes. Key developments in this report include:

More granular analysis of the uptake of sulphur scrubbers in the global shipping fleet, assessing the rate of penetration by vessel type up to 2025
More detailed analysis of ULSFO supply availability from pure streams and VGO blending, highlighting increased availability in the African and Russian markets
Additional work on ULSFO pricing, identifying the key price setting drivers for this new fuel specification
Our latest forecasts for fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H2 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances
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