Commodity Market Report
Finland downstream oil long-term outlook
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Report summary
Neste is the only crude oil refiner in Finland with a single refinery in Porvoo since the closure of the Naantali site in 2021. Although historically Neste produced a surplus of product to meet inland demand, this situation could change following the reduction of refining capacity in the country. Also the market leader in fuel distribution and retail, Neste dominates the inland wholesale market as it effectively sets the ex-refinery product prices for third party fuels marketers. Finland's retail network has been consolidating following the exit of the oil majors from the retail sector. Currently, the top four players supply over 95% of retail fuel demand. The national retail network is characterised by a high proportion of automated sites, at over 60%. However, we don't see this growing much further and expect it to stabilise going forward. As demand oil product demand peaks, we expect to see an increased drive to diversify at the forecourt.
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