Pre-LME week 2020 metals review

Table of contents

• Will the coronavirus reverberations provide an opportunity to (re)align with stakeholders?
  • In a year of unprecedented challenges, the industry finds itself at a crossroads
  • Consumption has been knocked, the supply response has been sluggish, but there is a gold lining
  • and an (EV) light at the end of the tunnel
  • Is vertical integration the answer?
  • Decarbonisation could be about to accelerate
  • The industry is at a crossroads
• A new flashpoint in the global struggle for power and influence
  • Verisk Maplecroft is observing both operators and investors in the metals and mining sector having to navigate increasingly choppy geopolitical waters, as a new era of strategic competition in the international arena builds steam.
  • Geopolitical aftershocks?
• Pan(dem)ic buying may not be the best solution
  • The primary aluminium market is set for multi-year surpluses reaching a cumulative 7Mt by 2023. Will there finally be a supply side response?
• The worst is over or is it still to come?
  • Considering the trajectory of the copper price since the March lows, one could be forgiven for thinking that the world is not in a recession
• A smorgasbord of upside, but a cliff edge on the horizon
  • Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, peak gold supply was becoming a real possibility. This hadn’t factored in a global pandemic that would shutter or disrupt nearly 80 gold mines!
  • Going down like a balloon?
  • While demand appears to be lead-lined, supply has taken quite a hit from coronavirus shutdowns. While we don’t expect prices to plummet any recovery will certainly be weighed down by structural oversupply.
• Another pothole in the road
  • Lithium
  • Cobalt
• Half empty or half empty ?
  • With metal stocks building and no supply correction in sight, the industry is setting itself up for a considerable and long-lasting hangover.
• A tarnished year and a lack-lustre period to come
  • Mine output > smelter production > consumption = market surplus. A simple equation sending a clear signal to the industry in 2021

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

• Metals’ role as an enabler, beneficiary or inhibitor?
• Percentage change in verbal conflicts in Jan-Aug 2020 versus 2017-2019 baseline
• Critical mineral supply security is moving up the political agenda

What's included

This report contains:

• LME_week_insight_2020.pdf

  PDF 4.39 MB