Commodity Market Report
Global lead investment horizon outlook - Q3 2024
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Report summary
High interest rates raised in response to cost push inflation increased living and borrowing costs and pushed economies towards recession. But interest rates have been cut in the major economies and global demand should pick up. The rate of EV penetration has slowed in North America and Europe with hybrid vehicles becoming increasingly popular. OE lead demand is solid because stop start technology in ICE and hybrid vehicles continues to increase market share. Despite weakened demand refined lead supply is struggling to keep up with poor concentrate and scrap feed availability. Having already been weak during the first half of 2024, primary production should continue to be encumbered by mine disruption in the second half. Even with mine supply forecast to ramp up in 2024-2025, stocks of concentrate and metal are not expected to exceed long-term levels until 2026 and beyond.
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