Commodity Market Report
Global copper investment horizon outlook - Q3 2024
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The slower-than-expected growth in refined consumption has led to a shift in the overall market view for 2024. We are now expecting a modest surplus with stocks in days of consumption unchanged year on year. Despite an increase in mine supply growth in 2025, robust copper demand will constrain the size of the surplus and we expect a decline in total implied metal stocks. This will push prices to a peak in the current cycle. Our view of a copper market in a long-term structural deficit remains intact. Global base case mine production capability is forecast to peak in 2026. Thereafter and against a backdrop of steady demand, the pace of base case mine supply growth starts to falter due to grade decline and reserve depletion. Additional supply is still required to come on stream to meet demand growth opportunities given the ongoing trends toward renewable energy, electromobility and energy efficiency. Crucially, scrap will also need to play a more significant role over the long-term.
Table of contents
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Copper medium-term outlook
- Investment Horizon – Medium-term supply considerations
- Long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Asia ex-China
- Rest of world
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Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
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Overview and supply changes since the last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruption Allowance
- 3 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Copper is now part of Lens Metals and Mining
- Surpluses emerging in the global metal market over the medium term
- Total copper consumption by property 2000-2034
- End-use copper demand from green sectors
- Total copper semis production 2000-2034
- Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2034
- Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2034
- Changes in refined copper consumption by region
- Regional refined copper consumption – kt
- EV sales penetration rate is expected to surpass the Roadmap 2.0 target
- Regional shares of refined consumption in North America
- Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-34
- 36 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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