Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The aluminium market outlook is being increasingly shaped by decarbonisation. On the demand side we see an acceleration in demand from the energy transition sector together with rising offtake of secondary aluminium over the next two decades. Meanwhile, aluminium producers are now starting to reach beyond primary and integrating recycled metal. However, there will be huge challenges to fully decarbonise the primary metal part of the value chain.
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2023
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- Indonesia
- India
- China
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Oceania
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- The slow road to decarbonising primary aluminium smelting
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
- 35 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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