Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The near to medium term outlook for the aluminium market will be shaped by the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although too early to fully assess, we are likely to see supply distress despite high prices and premia and elevated market risks. We think that there will be a reshaping of aluminium trade and supply-chain flows. The net result will be a volatile pricing environment. The long-term outlook will be shaped by decarbonisation with new capacity having to jump through ever rising hurdles. There is some comfort for investors as our calculations point to the average long-run price being comfortably above the inventive price. Nevertheless, the requirement for additional units of primary aluminium will fall as scrap based secondary metal increasingly does the heavy lifting in satisfying future demand requirement.
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2021
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- United States
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2021-2050
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- Africa
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2021-2050
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2022 $)
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Russia alumina production and imports
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- 33 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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