Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Sellers were in the ascendency in the second half of October as Chinese coal prices fell. October turned out to be a month of two halves. The LME price raced to a month official cash high of US$3179/t and hit US$3200/t in intra-day trading on 18 October. Since then, the price has pivoted to a downward trajectory, trading between US$2650– 2680/t. At the time of writing, prices had moved tentatively above the US$2700/t level on dip buying. The sharp drop in prices is not unique to aluminium, the entire base metals complex has taken a hit. Just as the run up prices was overdone; we think the sell-off has been excessive. China’s supply woes are not going to go away anytime soon on lower coal prices.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 26 images and tables including:
- Manufacturing activity remains subdued
- Investment growth in retreat
- Credit tightening impacting the property market
- Japanese production of semis
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
- US shipments of extrusions
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Aluminium project lead times
- Summary of September production, kt
- China and ROW aluminium production growth
- China capacity change January-October 2021, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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