Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2020

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. A downgrade to primary aluminium consumption in the medium-term, higher scrap usage globally means that there is less requirement for the aluminium industry to make significant investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. However, we do expect some investment in replacement capacity. We include for the first time in the LTO an “In Focus” section that will explore critically important aspects of the aluminium industry. The first looks at supply chain diversification in the long run. This will have important implications for future first-use demand growth and for where new smelting capacity may be located.

Aluminium market outlook
Alumina market outlook
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Beyond coronavirus: Supply chain diversification in the long run
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2019
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Asia
- India
- China
- Europe
- Oceania
Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Alumina: incentive price revised to US$350/t (from US$380/t) on location and lower discount rates
Aluminium: the required aluminium incentive price is lower than the historical average at US$2100/t
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
Regional demand tables

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

Global days of consumption to hit 84 days by 2023 driven by large surpluses in ROW
Primary aluminium demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
Downgrade in the primary aluminium incentive price from US$2250/t to US$2100/t

Global aluminium balance
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
Alumina demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2011-2040, Mtpa
Global alumina balance
Long term alumina incentive price reduced to US$350/t
Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
Chinese low temp bauxite import requirement (MT) and marginal quality-adjusted delivered cost (US$/t Al2O3 equivalent), 2025
Quality-adjusted delivered cost curve for LT imported ores sources into China in 2025
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Base case global bauxite supply 2019-2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
China's share of global primary demand falls from a peak of 59% in 2025 to 47% by 2040
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2019 vs Q1 2020 (kt)
Secondary aluminium consumption growth set to accelerate from late 2020s
Intensity of total aluminium use in China to fall below industrial production from 2025 onwards
Total demand split by end-use sectors
Transportation set to drive total aluminium demand growth over the next 20 years
Non-residential construction will provide support to aluminium demand beyond 2022
European imports of extrusions from China
US consumption per end-use sector
US imports of rolled products from countries under investigation
Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
China's smelter capacity change in 2019-2025, ktpa
Yunnan Hydropower Redundancy
Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)