Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2024
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie’s medium-term market balance will be increasingly determined by the interplay between scrap generation, secondary and primary metal. We assume that the share of global secondary metal in total demand will rise over the next 10 years and displace, to some extent, the requirement for additional primary aluminium. This is conditional on the industry ramping up scrap collection, sorting and processing capacity to feed growing secondary demand. Failure to achieve this will result in significantly tighter balances and sustained higher prices.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
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Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2024
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
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Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capability 2023-2034
- Asia
- China
- North America
- India
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
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Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2033
- China
- Africa
- Asia ex-China
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- India
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
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Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2034, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Middle East alumina requirement and imports (kt)
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2034, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Seaborne bauxite supply-demand balance and prices
- Seaborne bauxite supply - demand, Mt (dry)
- Kamsar - Yantai, Bauxite Capesize Voyage Rates, US$/t
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
- Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2024 $) – Incentive price US$2800
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Scenario analysis details
- Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2024 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption by region
- Total aluminium demand by energy transition sectors (Mt)
- Global secondary consumption by region
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2024 vs Q3 2024 (kt)
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Secondary growth to accelerate over the decade
- Aluminium demand from solar and wind power
- Short-term growth in non-residential construction
- Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
- Total end-use demand in Japan
- Total end-use demand in India
- Total end-use demand in Europe
- Total end-use demand in North America
- China production growth and utilisation, 2020-2029
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- China’s new aluminium supply and highly probable projects, ktpa
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- China’s new alumina supply and highly probable projects, ktpa
What's included
This report contains:
