Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aftershock from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to overhang the market over the next 3-5 years. We have lowered our global primary aluminium consumption growth estimates over the next few years to reflect an uncertain outlook for short-medium term end-use demand. The good news is that the next 10 years will see solid growth in secondary offtake as the aluminium industry accelerates it decarbonisation efforts. Although China is now ramping up output from hydro-based smelters, future supply from Yunnan, in particular, will become increasingly tied to variable reservoir water levels. Elsewhere, we expect most European curtailments to remain in place out to 2025 with a risk that some capacity will be permanently mothballed. Against this background, we expect the global market to remain in surplus for an extended period.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
-
Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
-
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2023
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capability 2022-2033
- Asia
- China
- North America
- Latin America and the Caribbean
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2033
- Asia
- Indonesia
- China
- Russia and the Caspian
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2033, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2033, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- 30 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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