Commodity Market Report
Cobalt Market 2021 outlook to 2050
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
2021 has been a breakout year for cobalt demand. After showing resilient growth in 2020 against the backdrop of a pandemic, cobalt demand has continued its growing momentum in 2021. Such strong performance can be largely attributed to the rocketing battery demand, with cobalt use across the spectrum of battery applications rising sharply. After the market rebalanced over the course of 2020, we saw a dramatic shift in market fundamentals driven by continuous supply tightness in feedstocks, metal stock drawdown caused by state stockpiling and a strong demand recovery. These factors together have all combined to fuel the price rally in 2021, with the benchmark metal price rising to a three-year high of over US$33/lb in late December.
Table of contents
- New price cycles needed in mid-2020s and early 2030s
- Long-term cobalt price forecast to be consistent with the historical average
- Cobalt demand set to grow strongly in the next decade
- Long-term outlook is positive, but substitution risks persist
- Cobalt supply will remain DRC- and China-centric, but diversification continues
- Recycling to make material contribution to supply growth from early 2030s
- Market balance and price drivers
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Base case price forecast
- Short-term forecast (2022-2024)
- Medium-term forecast (2025-2029)
- Long-term forecast (2030-2050)
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Risks to forecast
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
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Batteries
- Automotive
- Portable electronics
- Energy storage systems (ESS)
- Power and motive devices
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Superalloys
- Aerospace and defence
- Power generation
- Prosthetics and dentistry
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Tool materials
- Cemented carbides
- High-speed steel (HSS) and diamond tools
- 9 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Cobalt market balances and metal price outlook
- Cobalt demand outlook, by first use
- Cobalt demand outlook, by end use
- Supply of cobalt intermediates, by geography
- Supply of refined cobalt, by geography
- Global cobalt feedstock production versus demand
- Market balances for cobalt feedstocks
- Market balances for refined cobalt and stock levels
- Market balances for cobalt metal
- Cobalt market balances and metal price outlook
- Outlook for cobalt hydroxide payability and underlying metal prices
- Forecast cobalt demand in rechargeable batteries, by end use
- 59 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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