Insight
Cobalt: Five things to look for in 2025
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Report summary
Cobalt is set to experience more difficulties in 2025, with prices generally exhibiting a downward trend from their current US$13/lb to as low as a possible US$10/lb, leaving little room for healthy production margins. This projection is based on anticipated expansion of new production capacity and lower-than-expected installations of NCM cathode batteries, leading to oversupply for at least another two years. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is expected to increase geopolitical tensions in 2025 and the implementation of a US supply chain could increase some demand for cobalt and nickel compared to existing Chinese cathode requirements in the long term. For non-battery grades, continued recovery in the commercial aerospace industry will increase demand for cobalt through 2025 and prices for alloy grades are likely to remain healthy in a relatively tight market.
Table of contents
- The demand for battery-grade cobalt is lukewarm
- Aerospace recovery drives the superalloy demand
- Feedstock supply returns to single-digit growth
- The price will remain at a low position
- Trump’s second administration is a double-edged sword
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