Q3 2016 Global economy: cyclical slowdown, Brexit, commodity producer woes, China stimulus Report

Insight 28 July 2016

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie forecasts weak global GDP growth over the next five years. Developed economies face structural headwinds such as ageing demographics, while emerging markets must address reforms without the cushion of high commodity prices. On top of this, cyclical factors are at play. Growth drivers – especially in the developed world – look unsustainable. Last year we thought these cyclical factors would come to a head in 2018. But, with commodity prices worse than expected, and political instability deepening, it appears that cyclical slowdown has come sooner.

Cyclical slowdown
- Europe: Brexit, Grexit, Frexit, Nexit?
- Commodity producers: missed window of opportunity?
- Japan: 'Abenomics' has failed
- United States: Investment and industrial output GDP growth slump down to commodity price collapse
- China: short-term gain for long-term pain?
- Conclusion