Insight
Metallurgical coal price tumble threatens profitability
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Australian premium low-volatile HCC prices fell sharply, before settling around US$180/t by mid-September. Prices were mainly impacted by weak steel demand globally and excess spot seaborne cargoes. Not even the impacts of Anglo America’s Grosvenor suspension and a wet August in Queensland could stop the slide. At current prices, we estimate around 13% of HCC seaborne supply at negative margin, dominated by US and Mozambique exporters. We have not heard of specific mine suspensions to date but some smaller US mines are starting to evaluate their options.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Prices fall to three-year low
- China reemerges as price setter
- Will cost and margin stop the fall in prices?
- Our 90th percentile breakeven price for HCC lays the foundation
- What does it mean for PCI and SCC?
- Where to from here?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Steel and met coal prices & spot HCC cargo availability
- Chinese domestic prices equivalent to FOB Australia
- HCC seaborne export total cash cost curve (unadjusted for quality) for 2024
- HCC seaborne export 90th percentile total cash cost change over time
- HCC seaborne export margin curve for 2024
- Benchmark HCC seaborne export breakeven prices (15% IRR, real 2024 terms)
- PCI seaborne export total cash cost curve (unadjusted for quality) for 2024
- PCI seaborne export margin curve for 2024
- SCC seaborne export total cash cost curve (unadjusted for quality) for 2024
- SCC seaborne export margin curve for 2024
What's included
This report contains:
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