Insight
Metallurgical coal outlook under steel's accelerated energy transition two-degree scenario
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Steel is responsible for 7% of global CO2 emissions. Metallurgical coal is responsible for the vast majority of emissions from integrated steel mills. This industry needs to decarbonise if the world is going to achieve a two-degree warming pathway aligned to the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Any decarbonisation pathway will result in metallurgical coal demand destruction. Beyond our base case, we have explored an alternative scenario known as AET2.0 whereby steel follows a two-degree warming pathway . The challenge is immense. A revolution in steelmaking is required for success (our base case plots a slower evolution). Under the AET2.0 scenario, we investigate the impacts to metallurgical coal. As hot metal production is replaced by scrap based and DRI based EAFs, the trajectory of the global metallurgical trade is significantly reduced compared to our base case. With declining hot metal over the outlook, suppliers face intense competition and lower price expectations.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Steel AET2.0 scenario analysis
- Steel demand is unchanged from the base case
- Carbon emissions from the steel sector must fall by 75%
- Steel production methods must change
-
Metallurgical coal AET2.0 scenario analysis
- Metallurgical coal demand
- Metallurgical coal trade
- Seaborne metallurgical coal prices
- The impact of carbon pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global crude steel demand outlook - base case
- Global steel emissions by segment - Base case
- Global steel emissions by segment - AET2.0
- Global hot metal production
- Global total met coal production
- Global seaborne met coal imports
- 2050 major importers and exporters under AET2.0
- Blast furnace coke rates
- Global seaborne PCI demand - Base case vs AET2.0
- HCC demand versus operating capacity under AET2.0
- Major exporters - 2021, 2030 and 2050
- PLV HCC benchmark price outlook
What's included
This report contains:
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