Global thermal short-term outlook March 2023

In March, the market was finally able to gain a foothold after a cliff fall in January and February. Coal prices across various markets remained flat through last month. Newcastle 6,000 kcal prices leveled off at US$173/t after falling from US$400/t since the beginning of the year. Despite lower power demand with the start of warmer weather across the Northern Hemisphere, coal prices remained supported by India’s thermal coal import directive and supply disruptions in Colombia and South Africa. European gas prices seemed to level off this month, at around US$14/mmbtu TTF; however, prices at that level remain a challenge for coal demand and ARA prices have stayed at a large discount to Newcastle.