Name: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2020: price recovery begins in earnest
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Commodity Market Report 30 September 2020

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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The metallurgical coal market made an an abrupt turn, as LV Australian HCC spot prices climbed by nearly 30% from a recent low in August. The expectation for an easing of China’s import restrictions encouraged traders to book cargoes. Outside of China, numerous blast furnace restarts - many responding to the return of automotive production - freshened seaborne coal demand. Supply remains relatively tight, with lowered Australian exports and news of a dragline overhaul at a major premium coal brand mine leading to improved prices. Additional market tension surrounds the increased possibility of a difficult wet season in Queensland. We are optimistic the late-year trade landscape will hold continued demand and price improvements. India, realising recent capacity utilisation gains at major mills, will soon exit the monsoon season, requiring additional imports on festival induced demand. Risk remains from a second wave of coronavirus and China's ultimate move on import quotas.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Potential import restriction softening and supply availability power up markets
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Buyers thinking twice about spot cargo bid strategies
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#bca1057f-d03e-48ec-b17b-44b169eee84b" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="bca1057f-d03e-48ec-b17b-44b169eee84b" aria-expanded="false">
            Base case: Q4 price uptick kicks in
        </a>
        <ul id="bca1057f-d03e-48ec-b17b-44b169eee84b" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        1. Declining import restriction risk and steady demand support price rise
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        2. Ex-China demand, led by India, continues to gain momentum in Q4
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        3. Potential for supply to underperform in Q4
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Low case: easing of import restrictions fails to materialise
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        PCI producers given lifeline as Q3 contracts settled
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Australia:Queensland’s met coal throughput to slip further
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Australia: Dragline overhaul announced for Saraji
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Australia: Kestrel’s 2020 production target falls
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Mozambique: Moatize plant maintenance now scheduled for November
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        China: domestic coal mines face tightening
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Russia: Kolmar moves on new mine complex
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        US: Met exports rebound strongly in July
    </li>

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<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
         <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)</li>
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        <ul class="list list--bullets panel-toggle" id="8970452e658043578d336e8bbec89908">
            <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Crude steel production – Ex-China producers (Mt)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Blast furnace hot metal production – Ex-China producers (Mt)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Q4 2020 Global Supply vs Demand</li>
        </ul>
        
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >Metallurgical coal markets - short-term outlook data - Sept 2020.xlsx</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2020: price recovery begins in earnest</p>
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