Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2019: Walking the tightrope: Can India provide balance as China transitions
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
With the great energy transition yet to promise much in the way of a threat to metallurgical coal demand, the future can be viewed with comparative optimism. China's influence remains the most likely market disruptor but metallurgical coal prices have shown considerable resilience in the face of recent port restrictions, and other interventions. When China's hot metal production starts to fall, as it inevitably will, the market will need to deal with a changed dynamic in China, which we think will lead to lower prices. India's demand growth will be a very positive influence but will it be enough to maintain prices at current levels?
Table of contents
- Introduction
-
Changes since our last update
- Near Term prices: Chinese imports restricted but prices remain high
- 2020 - 2024: Changing dynamics
- 2025-2030: Supply grows but is it the right coal type?
- 2030-2040: Project pipeline under pressure to deliver
- PCI and SSCC searching for a return to parity
- What has changed?
- Long-term demand trends
-
Indian demand bolstered by brownfield expansion
- BF-BOF steel still the first steel-making option
- Infrastructure investment critical to the speed of India's growth
-
No change to Chinese megatrend of declining steel, coke and coal demand
- Capacity swap still to provide support for imported coals
- Increasing blast furnace size will entrench lower coke rates and higher CSR
- The high quality of imported coals will support their continued demand in China
Tables and charts
This report includes 7 images and tables including:
- HCC Demand comparison H2 versus H1
- HCC price forecast comparison
- Supply change 2019 to 2040
- Long term steel production in China by type
- Hay Point vs Chinese domestic pricing
- HCC supply and seaborne demand
- Seaborne HCC incentive price curve
What's included
This report contains:
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