Have policy headwinds pushed electric vehicles into the slow lane?

In 2024 the electric vehicle (EV) sector grew 27% year-on-year to reach 16.8 million units in sales and command a market share of 18%. But amid this strong growth, new headwinds have emerged in the West. What impact will this have on the outlook for EVs and the battery supply chain?

A new strategic planning outlook from our Electric Vehicle & Battery Supply Chain Service assesses:

• how recent policy/OEM strategy changes shape our global vehicle electrification outlook
• the impact of low cell prices and softening EV demand on Western gigafactory capacity forecasts
• new market share projections for ternary, iron-phosphate and advanced cell chemistries
• latest supply and price forecasts in the battery midstream, upstream and recycling markets.

Fill in the form to access a complimentary extract, and read on for a couple of highlights.

EV demand continues to grow – but policy headwinds mean the sales forecast has been lowered

The Trump administration has sent out strong signals of ending policy support for EVs in the US. As we reported back in January, the 'Unleashing American Energy' order set the then-new US government on a path towards eliminating subsidies and regulations that favour EVs – though the change required action from Congress to take effect).

Meanwhile in Europe, declining subsidies and rising trade barriers are also damaging EV sales prospects.

In our latest outlook. global EV demand will grow 4.3 times to 92 million units by 2050 – but EV sales have been downgraded by up to 5 million units quarter-on-quarter, partly to reflect lowered EV demand in all major markets

To see a chart outlining EV sales by region and market share, fill in the form to access the complimentary extract.

Softened policy support for EVs to pull down global cell demand by up to 182 GWh in 2035

EV battery demand will grow to 6.8 TWh by 2050, with iron-based chemistries commanding 39% of the market. Lowered EV sales projections have resulted in annual demand volumes dropping by up to 182 GWh quarter-on-quarter.

Battery chemical prices will remain muted till 2030s thanks to market oversupply. To see charts on battery chemical and EV pack prices, the report extract also includes charts detailing battery demand by end-use, recycled material supply and a look at whether hybrids will overtake EVs in North America.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.