North America gas strategic planning outlook: A glimpse into 2050

The future of North America’s gas market is constantly evolving  – and it is defined by opportunity and transformation. Our newly released Strategic Planning Outlook (SPO) to 2050 explores the structural shifts underway and outlines the long-term trends driving demand, production and pricing.

Read on for a glimpse of the key trends and insights.

Demand growth extends beyond LNG exports

Significant growth lies ahead – not only from LNG exports, but also from shifting domestic demand. Gas into power will be the primary driver for domestic market expansion on the back of accelerated momentum for power demand growth.   Strong large load growth from data centers and reshoring of power intensive industries, increasing electrification, a transition to lower-carbon energy sources, and efforts to bolster grid resilience – all of which elevate natural gas as a vital balancing fuel in the energy mix.  The call on new gas pipeline infrastructure will be even more crucial in supporting surging gas demand in regional markets.

US and Canadian LNG: A new era of export expansion

US LNG exports are set to more than double current levels by the early 2030s, driven by strong policy support, global energy security concerns and expanding commercial commitments. Meanwhile, Canada’s LNG sector is poised for a significant breakthrough, with its first export cargo expected by mid-2025. This milestone marks a new chapter for Canadian gas, providing a gateway to Asian markets and enhancing the region’s role in the global energy trade.

Production rises to meet long-term demand

Demand competition between power load and LNG exports for low-cost supply will become a central theme for the evolving gas market, particularly in the Gulf Coast region. 

In the near term, production growth will be driven by associated gas – natural gas produced as a by-product of oil extraction – particularly from key shale basins such as the Permian – despite recent oil price fluctuation. However, in the longer term, sustained supply growth will depend on non-associated gas production, with the Gulf Coast, Northeast and Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) enduring as critical supply hubs. Supply longevity, depth of inventory and pipeline capacity additions will be pivotal for the long-term stability of Henry Hub prices. 

Pricing outlook: A shift toward higher-cost supply

As the industry transitions to higher-cost non-associated resources, Henry Hub prices are expected to rise steadily, especially beyond 2040. This pricing trajectory reflects both supply-side cost dynamics and the increasing need to incentivise upstream investment in more capital-intensive plays. For market participants, understanding these price signals will be critical for long-term planning and portfolio strategy.

Access insights across the Gas & LNG value chain

Understanding the dynamics of gas markets is crucial for strategic planning and finding new opportunities.

Wood Mackenzie’s Strategic Planning Outlook offers valuable insights into long-term market trends, regional supply and demand balances, and evolving trade flows. With our deep analysis, energy professionals can navigate uncertainty, seize emerging opportunities and align their strategies with the structural shifts shaping the future of natural gas.

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