Steady advancement of current and nascent technologies, largely driven by affordability and supply security concerns.

Countries navigate the transition considering climate change as common goals. However, the pathways differ as countries prioritise economic growth and affordability above all else. Countries fall behind in meeting their nationally determined contribution (NDC) commitments, the climate action plans for each country as outlined under the Paris Agreement.

Fossil fuels account for 78% of the 2030 fuel mix. Natural gas demand is resilient as requirements for uninterrupted power outstrips renewables deployment. Power demand jumps to 35 PWh by 2030, 20% higher than 2024.

Solar and wind capacity rises five-fold in our 2050 base case, while electric vehicle stock grows from 4% today to over 50%. SMR nuclear is projected to reach 24 GW by 2030.

Net zero pledges now cover 88% of annual global emissions. In our base case, emissions peak in 2027 and decline to 24.8 Bt CO2e by 2050.

China, responsible for a third of global emissions in 2024, will begin to drive the next three decades of emissions reductions.

Emerging economies of Asia and Africa face the challenge of balancing economic growth with emissions targets. Europe and the US also struggle to reduce emissions; progress is held back by protectionism and lack of policy certainty.

Achieving our base case requires energy sector spend of US$55 trillion between 2024 and 2050. Upstream comprises 25% of this, compared to power and renewables at 60%.

Our energy transition outlook executive summary includes more detail on these themes, plus a selection of charts on fossil fuels demand outlook, power demand, critical minerals demand, solar and wind trajectories and more. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.